Soybean Prices: The increase in the prices of edible oil in the last few days seems to have stopped. The prices of edible oil are expected to come down in the coming days. In fact, soybean prices have come down to a 4-month low. These are expected to decline further. In the short term, the price may remain in the range, but it looks to weaken further up to Rs 5500. Right now soybean is trading around Rs 6200. Soybean is declining due to import free duty, increasing supply and weak demand.
Will the price come up to Rs 5500?
Rajiv Yadav, Senior Vice President, Origo Commodities says that in the short term, the price of soybean can remain in the range of Rs 6000-6600. But in the mid term it can weaken to Rs 6000 first and up to Rs 5500 if this level breaks. At present, it is currently at Rs 6250 for 4 months. Increased sowing in major soybean producing states has put pressure on prices. At the same time, the abolition of import duty on crude soybean oil and sunflower oil has also been affected. Apart from this, estimates of more supply of CPO and Palmolein from Indonesia and Malaysia, due to weak demand, the price has also fallen.
when will the trend change
He says that there will be a change in the trend of soybean only when the price starts trading above the trend reversal point 6750. He says that the prices of edible oil continue to fall in the global market. In the foreign market, the CPO has fallen by about 28 percent in the last one week and the price is currently at a 1-year low. There is no sign of stopping the decline.
Soybean sowing more this year
Increase in sowing of soybean in the country, expected to remain good due to better monsoon in producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will keep prices under pressure. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, soyabean has been sown in 30.52 lakh hectare in the current Kharif season till Friday i.e. July 1, 2022, which is more than 30.29 lakh hectare a year ago. In Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, sowing is going ahead 70 per cent as compared to last year. Sowing of soybean has gained momentum in Maharashtra as well.
soymeal exports fall
In May 2022, soymeal exports registered a year-on-year decline of 64.4 per cent to 18,634 tonnes. Whereas in the same period a year ago, this figure was 52,434 tonnes. At the same time, there was a decline of 53 percent in exports on a monthly basis as compared to 40,000 tonnes in April 2022. The government has abolished duty and agri cess on import of 20 million tonnes of crude soybean oil and sunflower oil annually till March 2024.